Industrial stocks have more room to rise as short-cycle demand returns: UBS India

Industrial stocks have more room to rise as short-cycle demand returns: UBS India


Industrial stocks may still have room to rise as short-cycle demand starts recovering after nearly two years of weakness, according to Amit Mahawar, Industrial Analyst at UBS India. He believes the recent 40-50% jump in new orders is not a one-off and that the recovery is still in its early stages.

“I think so broadly, what is happening here is after a gap of two years, the short-cycle segment is starting to see momentum. Momentum in terms of pricing as we speak, because copper, silver, steel, etc., everything has inflated significantly, right?”

Mahawar said ordering momentum has picked up significantly over the past one to two quarters, while channel partners have also started rebuilding inventories. He expects this trend to continue as end-market demand improves.

“I don’t think this is one-off. If you talk to companies, both the MNCs and domestic companies, they are expecting this to sustain because the end-market segments have started warming up.”
MNC is multinational corporation

The recovery is being supported by several emerging areas. Mahawar highlighted data centers, electronic manufacturing services (EMS), semiconductors, defence and import substitution as segments where the total addressable market is expanding. Low-and medium-voltage infrastructure is another area where he sees stronger growth.

Companies exposed to the data-center opportunity, both in India and through exports to the US, are yet to see the full benefit of the structural shift, he said. Defence suppliers, particularly Tier-2 and Tier-3 companies, are also benefiting as Western countries increasingly look to India as a sourcing base.

Near-term risks remain, with imported inflation and supply-chain disruptions weighing on recent industrial earnings. However, Mahawar expects the earnings trajectory to gradually improve over the next two to three quarters as companies take pricing actions.

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“Segments which are having good cyclical demand, structural shift, and pricing ability in product companies is where you will see the next margin delta.”

While macro risks from inflation and war-related disruptions remain, Mahawar believes improving order flows are encouraging investors to look beyond the near-term pressure.

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