This is the lowest price target among the 38 analysts who have coverage on ITC. The stock is trading close to its lowest price target.
ITC In Q4
ITC’s results for the fourth quarter were largely in-line with expectations on the Earnings Before Tax (EBITDA) and the profitability front.
The company’s cigarette business implied volume growth was between 4% to 5%, which is at the higher end of the 3% to 4% range projected by analysts.
Revenue growth for the cigarette business stood at 31.7%, mostly led by price increases.
FMCG though, stood out as a segment for ITC with a volume growth of 14.7%, compared to expectations of growth to be between 10% and 11%.
Citi Remains Bearish
According to Citi, the fourth quarter performance of ITC is not comparable with prior periods, given mid-quarter changes in cigarette taxation.
The brokerage expects a 7% volume decline, driving the 24% drop in cigarette net revenues. That reflects strong January demand, trade inventory stocking ahead of price hikes and demand slowdown thereafter following staggered price increases.
Citi also said that the key structural uncertainties persist, particularly around price elasticity, demand sensitivity to successive price hikes and a potential downtrading illicit products.
CLSA Remains Optimistic
CLSA has an “outperform” rating on ITC with a price target of ₹394, which implies an upside potential of 28% from current levels.
“The quarter was marked by a significant increase in cigarette taxes, which likely led to channel filling and potential product mix changes due to pricing differentials, thereby impacting overall performance during the period,” the CLSA note said.
Jefferies Warns Of A Test
Jefferies has a “hold” rating on the stock with a price target of ₹350. The brokerage said that the real test for ITC will be in the first quarter of this financial year, (Q1 FY27), when impact of the sharp tax hikes will be visible, as price hikes are only partial, while volumes and margins will be affected.
38 analysts have coverage on ITC, of which 15 have a “buy” rating, 14 say “hold” and nine have a “sell” rating.
Shares of ITC ended little changed on Thursday at ₹307.6. The stock is down 15% so far in 2026.
