“I’m a little afraid. It’s not looking good. It’s looking a little scary,” GP Sharma, President of Skymet Weather Services, said while discussing the outlook for August.
The Noida, Uttar Pradesh-based private firm that provides weather forecasting expects July to close with an 8-10% rainfall deficit. while the cumulative shortfall for June and July is likely to stay above 20%.
The current monsoon has been the fifth driest in the last 126 years:
| Year | June-July rain deficit |
| 2002 | 32.6% |
| 1972 | 29.6% |
| 1987 | 26.3% |
| 1918 | 26% |
| 2026 | 24% |
Source: SBI Research report dated July 20
Early weather signals point to a longer break in monsoon activity in August, according to Sharma. “For sure, it’s going to be a drought. How severe? That’s the only question,” he added.
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Agriculture is mostly rain-fed in India, with the south-west monsoon (between June and September) being the primary source. A lack of rain, leading to a drop in crop output, has raised the risk of inflation, which already hit an 18-month high in June, later in the year.
However, below-average rains may not lead to food inflation if the distribution, both spatial and temporal, is good. “Year 2018 is worth mentioning. Even after below-average rainfall, no impact on food inflation was seen as there was better spatial distribution,” the SBI Research report added.
Skymet is currently reviewing its seasonal forecast and expects to release an updated projection within the next week after analysing fresh weather model data.
Some regions, particularly northwest India, Gujarat, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and the northern plains, could remain more vulnerable to deficient rainfall.
Watch accompanying video for more
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(Edited by : Sriram Iyer)
First Published: Jul 20, 2026 3:00 PM IST
