Market Pulse: Key triggers to watch before the October 1 trading session


In a relief for Indian investors and markets, Wall Street was trading higher after US inflation rose less than expected, while consumer spending grew …

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US Markets | On the final trading day of September, US stocks rose on Wednesday after fresh economic data showed inflation slowing last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 84 points, or nearly 0.2%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed around 1%.

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US Consumer Spending | US consumer spending rose in August at the fastest pace in over a year, helping to power the economy through persistent inflation. Inflation-adjusted personal spending climbed 0.6% in August from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data released on Wednesday. That was the biggest monthly jump since March 2025.

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Core Personal Consumption Expenditures | The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose 0.2% month-on-month in August, below economists’ estimate of 0.3%, according to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released Wednesday. Core PCE inflation rose 3% from a year earlier, below the 3.3% expected by economists. The headline PCE index rose 0.3% from the previous month, in line with expectations, while the annual increase was 3.4%, below the 3.7% estimate. Both headline and core inflation, however, remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

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US Trade Deficit | The US merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in August, reflecting a jump in the value of imports of industrial supplies such as petroleum products. The shortfall in goods trade rose 11.5% from the prior month to $132.6 billion, the widest since early 2025, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday. Merchandise imports increased 5.5%, led by a 16.6% surge in the value of inbound shipments of industrial supplies. Imports of capital goods — a category that includes computers and accessories, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment — also rose.

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Fiscal deficit | India’s fiscal deficit stood at ₹7.1 lakh crore during April-August FY27, reaching 41.9% of the full-year Budget target, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). The August fiscal deficit stood at ₹2.5 lakh crore, nearly double the ₹1.29 lakh crore recorded in the same month last year. Centre has budgeted a fiscal deficit of ₹16.96 lakh crore, or 4.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), for FY27.

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Monsoon | India’s four-month southwest monsoon season ended on Wednesday (September 30) with an overall rainfall shortfall of roughly 13%, marking the country’s weakest seasonal precipitation in more than a decade and the fourth lowest recorded since 2001. According to data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), cumulative rainfall between June 1 and September 30 settled at approximately 87% of the long-period average, which stands at 868.6 mm based on 1971–2020 benchmarks.



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