Hello Espresso Lovers! Before we begin, wishing you all a very, very Happy Diwali, a prosperous New Year, and may Samvat 2083 bring everything that the year gone by could not – gains in the portfolio, less volatility, more peace, and happiness, food and laughter everywhere!
The lyricists of the generation gone by were visionaries PRO MAX. The lines they wrote, the songs they created, hold truth and relevance even in today’s context. One of the most prolific of them all, was Anand Bakshi. One of the most popular songs he wrote is the theme of today’s episode – Yeh Jo Public Hai Yeh Sab Jaanti Hai from Manmohan Desai’s Roti (1974). The lines from that song came true not in India, but in the proverbial Saat Samandar Paar in the US, based on the turn of events over the last week!
Which were those lines?
Heere Moti tumne chupaaye, kuch hum log na bole Par Aata, Chawal bhi chupa, to bhooko ne muh khole!
For a better part of the first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, there were plenty of reports of conflicts of interest, his sons’ business interests, his own crypto dealings, the construction of the White House ballroom, and many other such things that don’t really impact the life of a common American. The markets were doing well (he loves to brag about it), and the economy continued to grow on a stable footing.
Then came the Iran war.
Oil prices soared, gasoline costs were at a record high, inflation started to surge, the Fed began to hike interest rates, and the people’s pockets started to get pinched. Add to that was the blinding expansion spree of data centres and the citizens losing power and getting inflated bills. Of course, there were protests and so on, but that made no difference to the lives of either billionaires or the administration. What could have been a better way to answer?
The ballot box. Team Trump was handed a resounding defeat in the midterm polls, and the Democrats not only grabbed a majority in the Senate, but also in the House of Representatives. Suddenly, all of those words that Donald Trump thought were a hoax – Climate Change, Ozone, Rising Temperatures- sprung back to life. The Nasdaq saw its biggest single-day value erosion on record, and the chances of the AI bubble coming apart are now more than ever!
Another line from the same song summed up the state of affairs.
Kya Neta, Kya Abhineta, De Janta Ko jo Dhoka Pal Me Shohrat Ud jaaye, Jyon Ek Pawan Ka Jhonka
It cannot be more ironic that these lines not only fit Donald Trump and his current situation, but also were relevant to the hero on whom the song was filmed: Rajesh Khanna!
Samvat 2082 feels like one of two parts. 358 days of Part 1 and the final seven days of Part 2. The dead and dormant Indian market, particularly the largecaps, have come alive and how as Diwali festivities drew closer. The FIIs, the proverbial wedding uncles who are always upset over something or the other, have some newfound love for the country and our markets. After selling, selling and then some more, they have poured in nearly ₹50,000 crore over the last six sessions. You can almost hear them sing – Aaj Phir Tumpe Pyaar Aaya Hai, Behad Aur Beshumaar Aaya Hai from Dayavaan (1988)!
What has been the result of this Behad and Beshumaar Pyaar? A 22,500 Nifty just towards the end of October is now above 25,000 in just seven days! And when the largecaps ran, it was a proper team effort. Reliance Industries on Monday, Banks on Tuesday and Friday, NBFCs and Financials on Wednesday, and of course, the falling oil prices through the week, contributed to the bullish sentiment. Not to forget, most of the corporate results have been better-than-expected this time around, and no better way to get a market to run than earnings!
The Nifty jumped 7.5% in the week gone by. The last time it did so? February 2021. Yup, it’s been a while. Another Nifty 50 constituent saw a week similar to the Nifty, and in fact, was a leading contributor to the index recovery too! HDFC Bank. 14% gains in the last week. The last time it did so? February 2021. If the Nifty had to run, it needed both Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma to deliver. They did, and how! If HDFC Bank was Rohit Sharma, Reliance Industries was Virat Kohli. 13% higher in the week gone by, the biggest single-day gain on Monday in six years, the highest market cap addition on record, many more records were broken on the day Reliance surged 12% after its results. If both of them continue to have such century-like weeks, who knows- maybe, just maybe, a record high on the Nifty before the year ends? For all those saying Aapke Muh Me Ghee Shakkar, I prefer Biryani!
Yes, yes, I know it’s the festive time, so I would not take much longer either. But cannot close this episode out without tipping our hats to India’s retail population. Their faith, their conviction, that the market will eventually wake up from its slumber. Of course, we are still far from being out of the woods, but these last seven days have ensured that the hope continues to flicker, and if things quieten down in West Asia, oil prices fall, the AI trade continues to unwind, there could well be more firecrackers in store for Samvat 2083! And as the great Javed Akhtar wrote for possibly one of the greatest films of all time – Lagaan (2001) – Sach Aur Saahas hai, jiske mann me, Ant me Jeet usi ki hogi!
Once again, from all of us at CNBC-TV18, wishing you all a very, very happy Diwali and a Wonderful, joyous, peaceful and multibagger Samvat 2083. Do like, share, subscribe and follow us on our social media handles. We’ll be back next Saturday, which happens to be Children’s Day! Until then, do take good care of yourselves! Ciao!