Bernstein said Indian exchanges have delivered strong returns as the wave of retail participation has boosted both earnings and valuations.
However, given the speculative nature of growth in the segment, the brokerage said it is looking beyond top-down trends and has built a framework based on near-term trading volumes, earnings revisions and valuations.
Bernstein sees two contrasting stories emerging across the exchanges — an ‘inflection’ story at MCX and a ‘normalisation’ story at BSE.
The brokerage said equity derivatives have been at the centre of the retail participation wave, but growth in the segment is now showing signs of moderation.
For BSE, Bernstein expects market-share gains to peak in FY27, after which the exchange’s growth is likely to normalise.
In contrast, the brokerage sees an inflection point for the commodities segment, with MCX benefiting from a long runway for growth as participation in commodity derivatives expands and potentially cross-pollinates with equity derivatives.Among analysts tracking MCX, 14 of 16 have a ‘Buy’ rating, while two have a ‘Sell’ call. For BSE, nine of 19 analysts have a ‘Buy’ rating, seven have a ‘Hold’ rating and three have a ‘Sell’ call.
Shares of MCX ended 0.35% higher at ₹3,341.90 on Tuesday and have gained more than 50% so far this year. BSE shares settled 1.51% lower at ₹3,394 and have risen nearly 30% year-to-date.
