Nifty Outlook for October 29: Index stuck in 22,400-22,800 range, what should traders watch next?

The Nifty reversed from near the crucial resistance level of 22,800 on Tuesday and extended its decline on Wednesday, closing 50 points lower after a volatile trading session.

The benchmark opened 72 points lower and slipped to an intraday low of 22,497 within the first 75 minutes of trade. It then staged a sharp recovery after 10:30 am, gaining around 280 points over the next three hours. However, profit-booking in the final two hours pared some of those gains, leaving the index 50 points lower at 22,698.

On the first day of the November derivatives expiry series, the Nifty traded within a wide intraday range of nearly 280 points. The broader market has also remained volatile, with the index recording an intraday range of more than 200 points in 15 of the 18 trading sessions since October 1.

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Larsen & Toubro and Trent were among the top Nifty gainers, while Infosys, Reliance Industries and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) led the laggards.

Sectoral performance was mixed. Consumer durables, media and healthcare stocks posted the strongest gains, while oil and gas, information technology and realty stocks saw the sharpest declines.

Broader markets outperformed the benchmark for a third consecutive session. The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.43%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.9%.

The Indian rupee weakened by 10 paise to close at 95.22, according to the figures provided, as crude oil prices rose 1.5%. An attack on a Saudi Arabian refinery renewed concerns about potential supply disruptions. With three key central-bank decisions due this week, currency volatility is likely to remain elevated.

Nifty outlook: 22,800 is the key hurdle

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the Nifty had consolidated within a narrow 22,400–22,800 range over the past five sessions. A decisive breakout from either end of this band is likely to determine the index’s next directional move.

A sustained move above 22,800 could open the way towards the next resistance at 23,175. On the downside, a break below 22,400 could drag the index towards 22,180, Shah said.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities identified the 22,500–22,530 zone as an important near-term support area. A decisive break below 22,500 could intensify selling pressure and pull the index towards 22,350.

On the upside, the 22,830–22,850 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 22,850 would indicate strengthening momentum, he said.

Hitesh Rathi of Angel One placed immediate support in the 22,380–22,500 range, with stronger support at 22,100–22,200. On the upside, 22,800 is the immediate hurdle, aligning with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), followed by stronger resistance in the 23,000–23,150 range, which aligns with the 50-day EMA.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the underlying trend remained positive despite Wednesday’s decline, with the Nifty trading within a broad range of 22,500–22,800. A decisive move above 22,800 could bring fresh buying interest, while weakness could find support near 22,500.

Vatsal Bhuva of LKP Securities also described the index as range-bound, consolidating within the broader 22,400–22,800 band. He said 22,500 remained a key support level, where buying interest had repeatedly emerged, while 22,800 continued to act as a strong resistance. A decisive breakout beyond this range could trigger the next trending move.