The NSE IPO closes on Monday, September 21.
Mangal said, “The regulatory headwinds that have come over the last couple of months had actually kind of removed the sheen on the IPO, and therefore we had seen the issue price as well as the issue size also kind of coming down. But having said that, we should look at it for a longer period of time, and it’s very kind of positive in that sense.”
At the upper end of the IPO price band of ₹1,785, Mangal estimates that NSE would be valued at around 38 times FY28 earnings and 33 times FY29 earnings. He said these valuations are broadly comparable with those of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
Mangal pointed out that NSE has lost some market share in the index options segment, which remains a key contributor to its business. However, the exchange continues to hold a dominant position across other segments.
NSE has around 92-93% market share in the cash segment and an almost monopoly position in futures, according to Mangal. In index options, its market share stood at around 65% based on year-to-date FY27 data.
He expects some pressure on earnings in the near term. NSE’s profitability had already declined in FY26, but its longer-term growth record remains strong.
Between FY21 and FY26, both operating revenue and profitability grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 23-24%, Mangal said.
He expects FY27 to be a year of consolidation, followed by mid-teens growth from FY28 onwards.
Recent regulatory changes have also affected trading activity, particularly in the index options segment.
In August, the industry’s average daily premium turnover in index options fell around 20% month-on-month. NSE saw a 17% decline, while BSE recorded a 26% fall.
However, volumes had recovered up to September 18, helped by higher market volatility.
Mangal said regulatory headwinds, including the changes affecting trading activity and bank guarantee norms introduced earlier, are likely to continue to have an impact. At the same time, volatility could support premium turnover during the second half of FY27.
While NSE has been diversifying beyond its core businesses, index options remain a significant part of its revenue mix.
Around 60% of NSE’s revenue still comes from index options, highlighting the importance of trading volumes and regulatory changes in determining the exchange’s earnings trajectory.
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