According to a video analysis shared with CNBC-TV18 by Aishvarya Dadheech, the founder and CIO at Fident Asset Management, on Friday, September 11, assuming that even 50% of the eligible shareholders actually exit on listing day, the supply figure comes up to around 2.75% of the total capital base, which will be worth ₹14,000 crore, a relatively smaller number compared to the overall market capitalisation of ₹4.41 lakh crore.
The video goes on to explain that Category I and II Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs), Venture Capital Funds, and FVCIs can sell on the first day itself, provided they have already completed six months of holding the stock, all other existing shareholders can only sell six months after the listing is complete.
| Shareholder Eligible To Sell On Day 1 | % Of Pre-Offer Capital |
| PI Opportunities Fund I | 2.35 |
| 360 One Funds | 1.47 |
| Volrado Funds | 0.49 |
| Varanium India Opportunities Fund | 0.23 |
| Sixth Sense Funds | 0.18 |
| Others | 0.76 |
| Total | 5.48 |
Therefore, only 5.48% of the pre-offer capital of NSE is freely sellable on the day of its listing, which means that the stock will continue to have a lack of free float in the market for at least the first six months.Considering the size and the market capitalization that NSE commands in its IPO and will command post its listing, Fident believes that there is a very high probability of the stock being fast-tracked into the FTSE indices, since it will be eligible under the index’s fast-track inclusion criteria. MSCI inclusion will be gated by the free-float available at that juncture.
| FTSE All Indices | |||
| Entry Point | Market Cap (₹ Cr) | Free Float (%) | Potential Inflow (₹ Cr) |
| T+5 Days (Fast Track) | 5,00,000 | 10 | 900 |
| 27-Sep | 5,00,000 | 21 | 1,000 |
NSE shares will be listing on the Bombay Stock Exchange but will find their way into the various indices of the exchange only in a staggered manner, with the final Sensex 30 inclusion possible only by June 2028, according to Fident.
According to Fident, once NSE enters the BSE 500 index, it will be active funds, and not the passive ones that will become the major driver of incremental demand, simply because of the scale of the active AUM benchmarked to that index.
Fident’s note says that around ₹2 lakh crore worth of Mutual Fund AUM is benchmarked to the BSE 500, and out of the nearly ₹7 lakh crore PMS equity AUM, the BSE 500 accounts for around ₹3 lakh crore. A potential entry in the BSE 500 at a 2.2% weightage could draw demand worth ₹11,000 crore for NSE, as per Fident’s note.
NSE’s IPO will be open for subscription between September 17 to 21 and it plans on selling shares in a price band of ₹1,700 to ₹1,785 per share. The upper end of the price band would imply a market capitalization of ₹4.41 lakh crore for NSE.
