Abneesh Roy, Executive Director at Nuvama Institutional Equities, said most FMCG companies are likely to build on the recovery seen in the January-March quarter of 2026 (Q4FY26). He expects several firms, including Nestle India, Marico, Pidilite Industries, Asian Paints, Berger Paints India and Emami, to deliver strong April-June quarter of 2026 (Q1FY27) numbers, while bellwethers such as Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and Godrej Consumer Products could see close to double-digit sales growth and around 7% volume growth.
While investors remain worried about weak rainfall and lower sowing activity, Roy said historical data does not support fears of a sharp slowdown in consumer demand. “What we have seen is there is no big correlation, at least last 10 years, between the deficit in rains and volume slowdown for the sector,” he said.
According to Roy, the quality and distribution of rainfall matter more than headline monsoon numbers. He added that rural demand remains healthy for now, supported by government welfare measures in several states. The real impact of any monsoon shortfall, if it emerges, is likely to become clearer only in the second half of 2026-27 (FY27).
Roy also highlighted growing competition in the consumer sector from Reliance Consumer Products. He described Reliance as “very, very serious competition,” pointing to the rapid rise of Campa Cola, which has gained market share through aggressive pricing and strong dealer incentives. However, he believes most FMCG categories are large enough for established players and Reliance to coexist.
In the paints sector, Roy expects growth momentum to remain intact despite lower crude oil prices. He said paint companies have demonstrated strong pricing discipline and should continue to post double-digit revenue growth. Even if crude remains in the $60-$70 per barrel range and companies partially reverse earlier price hikes, healthy volume growth should support sales.
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On retail, Roy remains positive on Trent despite the stock’s correction from recent highs. He believes the company’s long-term growth outlook, particularly for its Zudio format, remains strong. “We continue to like Trent,” he said, adding that valuations have become more comfortable after the recent pullback.
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