“A lot of the impact of India on higher-for-longer oil prices is largely baked into valuations,” Orton said. “For global investors who want to be selective and actually do their homework, there are a lot of ripe opportunities.”
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That debate has sharpened as India moves to adjust fuel prices for the first time in four years. State-run oil retailers raised petrol and diesel prices by ₹3 per litre, ending a long freeze, even as the broader burden from elevated crude remains heavy.
Former HPCL Chairman and Managing Director pointed to under-recoveries and said the gap between market-linked pricing and retail prices remains significant, with the shortfall closer to ₹14–15 per litre. He added that every dollar rise in crude or currency weakness widens losses by about 65 paise per litre.
But Orton’s argument is that this stress is already reflected in market pricing.
He draws a contrast between India and parts of North Asia, where markets like South Korea have rallied sharply on the back of the artificial intelligence hardware cycle, even though they too depend heavily on imported energy. In his view, India’s weaker performance versus those markets is more about sector composition and earnings drivers than oil alone.
“The stock markets and the price action in equities do not necessarily reflect what you’re actually seeing on the economic fundamental perspective,” he said.
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Orton prefers to stay selective, focusing on companies that are either insulated from oil volatility or benefit from commodity-linked strength such as Adani Ports, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel. On the consumer side, he likes Mahindra and Mahindra. “They are trading at a significant discount to where their valuation should be, given their strong earnings report. That’s the name I would much rather buy on weakness.”
He is less constructive on consumer staples, broad discretionary consumption and gold-linked businesses, where he sees weaker earnings visibility.
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