Tata Motors CV shares gain 3% after Nomura upgrade; CLSA bullish post Q1, check targets

Tata Motors CV shares gain 3% after Nomura upgrade; CLSA bullish post Q1, check targets


Shares of Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles Ltd., the commercial vehicles entity of Tata Motors, opened 3% higher on Thursday, August 13, after the company reported a steady performance for the June quarter (Q1FY27) of this fiscal.

The company’s revenue rose 23% year-on-year to ₹19,329 crore from ₹15,682 crore. EBITDA increased 16% to ₹2,183 crore from ₹1,890 crore, while EBITDA margin stood at 11.3%, compared with 12.1% a year ago.

Volumes grew 27% YoY but declined 18% sequentially. Domestic market share improved by 207 basis points YoY and 110 bps QoQ.

TMCV outlook

Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles raised its FY27 medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) demand growth forecast to 8% from its earlier estimate of 5%.

The company expects healthy double-digit M&HCV volume growth in Q2FY27.

On electric vehicles, management said demand remains strong, with EV penetration in the small commercial vehicle segment reaching 10% as the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage is being achieved sooner.

On exports, the Indonesia order is expected to be delivered over FY27-28.

On costs, the company expects continued pressure but has taken a 2.5% price hike in July to partly offset the impact. It also flagged some supply constraints amid strong demand.

The proposed acquisition of Iveco is expected to close by early November 2026, subject to the required approvals and conditions.

How brokerages reacted

Nomura upgraded Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles to ‘Buy’ with a price target of ₹554. The brokerage said Q1 EBITDA came in ahead of estimates, with strong performance across segments.

Nomura expects margins to improve further following the price hikes and said the CV outlook has become brighter. It raised its FY27 forecast for M&HCV demand growth to 8% from 5% earlier.

CLSA maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating with a price target of ₹596. The brokerage highlighted the 11.3% Q1 EBITDA margin, which was 76 bps lower YoY but around 50 bps ahead of consensus.

According to CLSA, TMCV attributed most of the margin decline to commodity inflation, which had a 340-bps negative YoY impact. This was partly offset by operating leverage and price hikes, which contributed around 140 bps positively.

While commodity costs remain inflationary, CLSA said TMCV expects the impact to be mitigated through the 2.5% price increase implemented in July and ongoing cost-reduction measures.

On demand, CLSA said that the underlying momentum remains healthy, with the company expecting CV industry demand to remain robust and Q2FY27 volumes to grow in double digits.

Shares of Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles ended 1.52% higher at ₹456.90 on Wednesday.



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