This $5 billion chemical stock can surge 25%, says Jefferies

This $5 billion chemical stock can surge 25%, says Jefferies


The management of UPL (market capitalisation of over $5 billion) remains confident it will deliver its FY27 growth guidance of 10-14%, with second-quarter performance broadly tracking internal expectations, according to analysts at Jefferies.

The global brokerage has maintained its ‘buy’ rating on the agrochemicals major with a target price of ₹715 per share, citing confidence in the company’s growth trajectory, margin improvement initiatives and upcoming value-unlocking triggers.

The call is directionally in line with the market’s consensus target of ₹737. 15 out of 19 analysts have a buy rating on UPL despite a sharp reversal in the stock’s returns this year.

Brokerage Target price Call
Jefferies ₹715 Buy
360 One ₹801 Buy
Morgan Stanley 658 Equalweight
Investec ₹760 Buy
Kotak Securities ₹640 Reduce

HSBC’s Saurabh Jain has the highest price target of ₹880.UPL shares went up from a low ₹483 in November 2024 to a high ₹812.2 in December 2025. Since then, the stock has corrected nearly 30%.

Fundamentals remain strong

Jefferies noted that a key driver of profitability will be the company’s ongoing efforts to rationalise or exit unprofitable businesses. These measures are expected to support a gradual improvement in EBITDA margins over the coming quarters.

The brokerage also flagged UPL’s disciplined inventory management in Latin America, where the company is maintaining tight control of stock levels amid concerns about the impact of El Niño weather conditions.

Meanwhile, investors are closely watching developments around Advanta, UPL’s seeds business, which is expected to go public soon. The move could unlock value for shareholders.

Reflecting its positive stance on the stock, Jefferies projects 14% EBITDA growth in FY27, supported by revenue growth, improved operational efficiency, and a better business mix.

The brokerage believes the combination of earnings recovery, margin expansion and potential monetisation opportunities positions UPL favourably for further upside from current levels.

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