COMEX gold was trading at around $4,456.50 an ounce, down 0.45%, while silver was at $66.685 an ounce, lower by 0.09%, according to the latest available prices.
The precious metals are entering a week in which US inflation data, movements in crude oil prices and developments in West Asia could influence investor expectations and the direction of bullion prices.
Why US inflation matters for gold and silver
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, due on September 11, is likely to be the biggest macro trigger for bullion markets this week.
A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher interest rates and bond yields generally reduce the appeal of gold because the metal does not generate interest income.
US Treasury 10-year yields were near 4.78% after last week’s stronger jobs report increased expectations of a possible rate move by the Fed later this month.
“US inflation numbers would be the key trigger for bullion markets amid considerable speculation over the interest rate outlook,” said Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services.
Markets are currently assigning a 58% probability to a rate hike at the Fed’s September 16 meeting, according to the market pricing cited in the latest assessment.
The inflation data could therefore influence both the dollar and bond yields, two factors that often have a significant bearing on gold prices.
What is happening with gold and silver prices in India?
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for October delivery fell ₹3,514, or 2.2%, last week to end at around ₹1.52 lakh per 10 grams. Silver futures declined ₹4,786, or nearly 2%, to ₹2.37 lakh per kg.
Gold’s weakness followed profit booking and a reassessment of the US interest-rate outlook after the latest jobs data.
“MCX gold witnessed volatile moves last week, with the first half seeing continued profit booking,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.
For the near term, Mer sees resistance for gold at around ₹1.57 lakh per 10 grams. In silver, he maintains a positive bias as long as prices remain above the ₹2.31 lakh-per-kg support level.
Why West Asia tensions are not automatically bullish for gold
Geopolitical tensions have traditionally supported gold through safe-haven demand. However, the latest market reaction has been more complicated.
Oil prices rose on Monday (September 7) after the latest escalation involving the US and Iran. Brent crude was around $96.45 a barrel, while US crude was near $91.85.
Higher crude prices can add to inflationary pressures and, in turn, complicate the outlook for interest rates. That can weigh on gold if investors begin to expect tighter monetary policy.
“Bullion sold off as geopolitical concerns emerged as a rate risk rather than triggering a traditional safe-haven demand,” said Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at brokerage platform Lemonn.
Silver faces an additional demand factor
Silver can respond to the same monetary-policy and dollar trends as gold, but its price is also influenced by industrial demand.
That makes silver potentially more sensitive to changes in the global growth and interest-rate outlook.
“Silver saw sharper swings in both directions as its industrial demand is also sensitive to the interest rate trajectory,” Garg said.
This means that, apart from US inflation and monetary policy, investors will also track economic data from major economies such as China, Japan and the eurozone for clues about industrial activity and demand.
Central bank buying provides longer-term support for gold
Despite the near-term focus on interest rates and the dollar, central-bank demand remains an important structural factor for gold.
According to World Gold Council data cited by analysts, the People’s Bank of China bought 20 tonnes of gold, extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months. Its purchases so far in 2026 have reached 60 tonnes, taking its total gold reserves to 2,366 tonnes.
Such purchases can provide a longer-term source of demand even as prices fluctuate in response to interest-rate expectations.
For the week ahead, however, the immediate direction of gold and silver is likely to depend more closely on the US inflation reading, bond yields, the dollar, crude oil prices and developments in West Asia.
-With agencies inputs
