Nifty Outlook: Sharp crude oil price gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment, with the Nifty extending its losing streak for the fourth consecutive week to settle at 23,898, down 1.15 per cent, said Dharmesh Shah, Technical Head- Vice President, ICICI Securities in his column.
However, the momentum remained strong in small caps, with the index extending its record-setting run for the third consecutive week and ending with marginal gains. Sector rotation continued, with Realty and Oil & Gas gaining traction, while Auto and Consumer Durables witnessed profit booking, the market expert said.
- The lack of follow-through strength above previous session’s high persisted over eighth session in a row. As a result, weekly price action formed a bear candle carrying lower high-low, indicating prolonged corrective bias.
- Nifty extended correction on the backdrop of 4 months rising trendline breakdown. However, broader market remained in limelight yet again. Therefore, focus should be on the broader market while Nifty witness subdued traction.
- Going ahead, key support is placed at 23,600 being July month low. Meanwhile, a decisive close above psychological mark of 24,000 would confirm conclusion of corrective phase and open the door for 24,400 in the coming weeks.
- Despite ongoing volatility Nifty continues to maintain higher high-low structure on the larger degree charts, indicating structural uptrend is intact. The index has formed sequential higher bottoms off April low (22,182). Each higher base has formed a peculiar pattern of arresting intermediate correction around 61.8 per cent to 80 per cent retracement of prevailing uptrend.
- The current ~990 points pullback precisely align with the structural rhythm, retracing 80 per cent of Jul-Aug 1,150 points rally. We expect index to maintain the same rhythm and form a higher base in coming weeks.
- Historically, two decades data suggest that September has been the volatile month. However, such volatility has paved the way for direction move in subsequent months.
- Inflows into FCNR deposits provided strong support for the Indian Rupee, driving its recent appreciation (up 0.9 per cent). Consequently, USD/INR recorded breakdown from 16 months rising trend line. This fall could provide a favourable backdrop for the broader equity markets and trigger fresh buying interest.
- After Brent crude peaked at $120 in March, intermediate rallies have exhausted around the 80 per cent retracement of prevailing decline. Following the historical rhythm, the current 80 per cent mark is placed at 97 which would be the key level to watch out for.
BHEL: Breakout from 14 weeks consolidation in the vicinity of All-Time High signifies continuation of prevailing uptrend. Further, it is important to highlight that recent consolidation helped stock to form a higher base above its 50 days EMA which has been respected since April 2026, highlighting robust price structure. Hence, we recommend buying in the range of 420-433 for the target of 470 and maintaining a stoploss of 402.
(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)
Akshat Mittal is the Chief Copy Editor at ET NOW with over 6 years of experience, specialising in Markets, Personal Finance, and General News. Before joining ET NOW, he worked with prominent media organisations and has reported on numerous major events firsthand.
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