Craig, who started as chief executive officer in July, is focused on delivering a major pipeline of growth, including expansions in South American and Australian copper — as well as its push into potash, a mineral used in fertiliser. BHP says it is targeting 3% to 4% copper equivalent growth per year up to 2035 — roughly double consensus expectations.
Copper accounted for more than half of the group’s revenue for the first time over the 12 months, in large part thanks to a 35% jump in realised prices over the period. Iron ore, its other key product, also held up despite ongoing struggles in China’s property sector and Beijing’s efforts to tighten control over procurement, which have squeezed large producers including BHP.
“Copper remains our biggest growth opportunity in Australia, in Chile, in Argentina,” Craig said on a call with analysts, outlining expectations of strong demand thanks to artificial intelligence, energy security and other long-term trends. “What I want to stress is that all the copper options we have in BHP currently are attractive.”
The miner reported underlying profit of $13.2 billion for the 12 months through June, up 30% on a year earlier. After exceptional items including a previously announced $2.3 billion write-down on its Jansen potash project and costs related to the Samarco dam failure, attributable profit increased 9% to just under $10 billion.
It will pay a final dividend of 99 cents, its highest in four years and equivalent to a 72% payout ratio — helping to lift its Sydney-listed shares as much as 4.2% in morning trade.
“The bottom line is this is good and solid result,” said Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey Markets Pty Ltd.’s head of metals and mining research in Sydney. “They’re well ahead of cash dividends. They’re doubling down on their copper strategy, which investors like. It’s Brandon Craig showing they have a plan for the next decade,” he added.
BHP’s planned boost in copper production will not come without challenges. Its current output from mines in Chile is slipping as grades decline and the operations age. Countering that will require billions of dollars of investments at Escondida and at its major Olympic Dam operation in South Australia, which delivered its strongest production in two decades.
“The ultimate potential of Olympic Dam is as high as 1 million ton per annum copper equivalent production,” Craig said. “That’s the same sort of scale we see in Escondida currently, but the difference is that it’s a 100% BHP-owned asset compared to a 57% position in Escondida.”
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