Jefferies has initiated coverage on MCX with a “buy” rating and a price target of ₹3,600, which implies an upside potential of 28% from Tuesday’s closing levels.
The brokerage in its note stated that while India’s commodity markets lag the equity market, the penetration will increase going forward, and MCX is well positioned to benefit from the same, as it is India’s leading non-agri exchange.
MCX’s revenue could grow at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20% over the next few years, despite a high base, as scope for new products, and retail participation, which is one-fifth of NSE’s levels, contribute to that growth.
While Jefferies is projecting MCX’s margins to expand by 260 basis points, its earnings could grow at a 22% CAGR by financial year 2029.
The brokerage is valuing MCX at 45 times its June 2028 estimated Earnings Per Share (EPS), and while its current price target offers a 27% upside, the optionalities could add another 15% to 20% to its upside potential.
For MCX, optionality is the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a pre-determined price.
15 analysts have coverage on MCX, of which 10 have a “buy” rating, four say “hold” and the other one has a “sell” rating.
Towards the end of May, UBS had downgraded MCX to “neutral” from its earlier rating of “buy”, but raised its price target to ₹3,600 from ₹3,200 earlier, stating that the peak earnings momentum for the stock is likely behind it.
UBS said that a strong volume run-rate is already factored in the stock and therefore it sees limited upside going forward.
Shares of MCX had ended 2.5% lower on Tuesday at ₹2,841. The stock is up 30% so far in 2026.
