US economic data, Iran war support, oil prices, and bond market trends are key. Durable Goods, GDP, PCE, and consumer spending data are due. US suppor…
1/6US markets: US stock opened higher on Tuesday, August 25, as Treasury yields eased and semiconductor shares recovered. Dow futures rose 0.6%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell over 3 basis points to 4.666%. Nvidia, AMD and Micron gained in premarket trading ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results. Investors are also tracking economic data and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week for clues on the interest-rate outlook.
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2/6US Economic Data: On August 26, markets await a heavy slate of data. Durable Goods orders for July are forecast to fall 0.5% after a 0.3% rise. Q2 GDP’s second estimate is expected unchanged at 1.5%. Personal Income and Consumer Spending are seen rising 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, both cooling from June. The PCE Price Index is projected up 0.1% M/M and 3.6% Y/Y, with Core PCE at 0.2% M/M and steady 3.3% Y/Y. Later, Richmond Fed’s Barkin speaks in Greensboro, offering possible policy commentary.
3/6US Iran war: Public support in the US for military action against Iran fell to 31%, its lowest level since the conflict’s early days, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Support declined from 37% in March and 34% earlier this month, with Republican backing falling to 69% from 77%. President Donald Trump’s approval rating remained at 33%, the lowest recorded in Reuters/Ipsos polls during his first or second term. Meanwhile, 83% of Americans expect the war to continue for an extended period.
4/6Oil prices: Oil prices fell more than 3% on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s decline, as markets played down the immediate impact of expanded US sanctions on Iran and focused on easing concerns over a broader disruption to Middle Eastern crude supplies. Brent crude fell to $89.25 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined over 3% to $82.20. However, supply disruption risks remained, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and regional attacks continuing to concern markets.
5/6US bond market: US Treasury yields have climbed sharply, with the 30-year yield nearing 5.24%, as investors assess rising government debt, elevated fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance. US government debt has crossed $40 trillion, while annual interest payments are approaching $1.2 trillion. Treasury buybacks briefly eased pressure on long-dated bonds, but yields rebounded. The rise in US yields could also affect equities and emerging markets, including India, through higher borrowing costs, a stronger dollar and potential pressure on foreign portfolio flows.
6/6FIIs, DIIs turn buyers: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the Indian equity market, purchasing shares worth ₹1,593.53 crore on Tuesday, on a provisional basis. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers, with purchases worth ₹230.26 crore.
