Chandan said the structural gap between supply and demand favours hard commodities like copper over agricultural ones. Unlike crops, where farmers can ramp up planting the following season if prices rise, mining output cannot be scaled up quickly.
That dynamic, he said, is why copper’s supply deficit is likely to widen from here.
To play the metals theme, Chandan said Bajaj Asset Management is building a basket that spans ferrous and non-ferrous metal producers, along with commodity exchange MCX, rather than betting on a single stock.
He noted that Hindustan Copper remains the only direct listed play on copper in India, which is why diversifying across the metals value chain matters. The fund is also watching ancillary beneficiaries of the metals cycle, including graphite electrode makers such as HEG and Graphite India, following news that global producer GrafTech is cutting roughly 51,000 tonne of capacity — about 7-8% of global capacity outside China — a move the street hopes will support pricing for domestic players.
Beyond metals, Chandan flagged a broader midcap and smallcap rally that has begun to narrow after a sharp run since March, when the segment bottomed out and then rallied roughly 30%.
He said the market is now shifting from a broad-based rally to a more stock-specific phase, as investors demand 30-40% upside rather than settling for modest single-digit gains. He expects the rally’s breadth to stay narrow until the next earnings season and the festive period bring fresh triggers.
He had flagged the sugar sector as a contrarian pick in an earlier conversation. Chandan said his fund is no longer betting on pure sugar stocks after a sharp rally in names like Balrampur Chini, Shree Renuka Sugars and Bajaj Hindusthan. “I’m a contrarian at heart, and so I typically get attracted to those sectors which people generally don’t like, but I hope that they don’t like it temporarily, not permanently,” he said.
He added that sugar prices are likely to stay firm this year, so existing holders don’t need to exit, but he does not expect much further upside. Instead, the fund is favouring diversified plays that combine sugar with businesses like crop protection, fertilisers or textiles, the last of which he said is benefiting from free trade agreements (FTAs) India has signed with the UK and hopes to finalise with Europe.
Chandan said the fund is staying overweight on midcap and smallcap banks with strong capital positions and healthy gold-loan portfolios, rather than dedicated gold financing companies, which he said are not currently in the portfolio at prevailing valuations.
He said the fund continues to hold HDFCBank despite some recent earnings misses, calling it a case of high uncertainty rather than high risk given the bank’s valuation and business quality. “It’s better to have uncertainty than risk,” he said, adding that the uncertainty largely centers on succession at the top of the bank.
Chandan also pointed to value in jewellery retail beyond market leader Titan, noting that his fund holds positions in some mid-cap and small-cap names in the segment, which he said is benefiting from business expansion and improving pricing across the industry.
Overall, Chandan expects Nifty earnings to grow 12 to 13% this year, and said India’s domestic economic setup remains strong, even as volatile global newsflow, particularly out of the West Asia, is weighing on investor sentiment and largecap stock performance.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
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