Nifty Outlook for August 21: Can the 7-day losing streak break pave the way for a recovery?

Nifty Outlook for August 21: Can the 7-day losing streak break pave the way for a recovery?


Nifty snapped its seven-session losing streak on Thursday, August 20, rising 153 points, or 0.64%, to close at 24,231. The index opened 147 points higher and remained firm through the first half of the session before paring some gains amid profit booking.

Notably, the Nifty gained 20 points during the Closing Auction Session (CAS).

Among Nifty 50 constituents, Eternal, Shriram Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank emerged as the top gainers, while Tata Consumer, Hindalco Industries and IndiGo were the leading laggards.

The broader market also ended higher, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 rising 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. All sectoral indices ended in positive territory, with Media, Private Banks and Realty emerging as the top performers.

The Indian rupee also snapped a three-day losing streak, gaining 5 paise to close at 95.70 against the US dollar. The recovery came amid a broader decline in the greenback against major currencies, following a sharp fall in US Treasury yields.

Gold-loan financiers gained 3-4% as gold prices climbed to a more than two-month high, supported by lower US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. The US Treasury plans to double the size of buybacks of longer-duration debt to contain the recent rise in yields, after the 30-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007.

Nifty outlook

The near-term outlook has improved after the index broke its seven-session losing streak, but analysts believe Nifty needs to reclaim key resistance levels for the recovery to gain momentum.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the rebound helped Nifty reclaim its 50-day DEMA at 24,188 and 100-day DEMA at 24,203, signalling an improvement in near-term momentum.

However, the index continues to trade below its 20-day EMA at 24,304 and 200-day EMA at 24,377, suggesting that the broader short-term trend has yet to turn decisively positive, Shah added.

Nifty’s ability to sustain above the crucial 24,000 support zone remains important. The level coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the previous upswing and an upward-sloping trendline connecting the April, June and July swing lows on the daily chart.

“Sustained buying above 24,375 will be crucial to negate the prevailing short-term downtrend and open the door to further recovery,” Shah said. Until then, the 24,000-24,050 band is likely to remain a key support area, while 24,300-24,375 may act as the immediate resistance zone.

According to Hitesh Rathi of Angel One, the near-term outlook remains cautiously buoyant as long as the crucial 24,050-24,000 support zone holds. “Any dips should be utilised to consider venturing into longs” as long as the support holds, he said.

From a technical perspective, 24,150 is the immediate support, followed by the stronger 24,040-24,000 zone. On the upside, resistance is likely at 24,250-24,350, followed by 24,400-24,450, Rathi added.

LKP Securities’ Rupak De said the index staged a recovery after finding support at a critical level, with Nifty closing meaningfully higher than the previous session for the first time in 13 sessions.

“Overall, the short-term sentiment looks positive,” De said, adding that Nifty could move towards 24,350-24,500, while 24,150 remains the immediate support.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty continued to trade within a narrow 884-point range over the past few sessions, indicating a lack of directional momentum.

Going ahead, the 57,800-57,900 zone is likely to act as key resistance, while 57,100-57,000 remains an important support area. A decisive breakout above 57,900 or a breakdown below 57,000 could trigger a strong trending move and determine the index’s next directional phase, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.



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