Nifty Outlook for July 1: Higher levels fail to sustain but range remains intact as new series begins

Nifty Outlook for July 1: Higher levels fail to sustain but range remains intact as new series begins


Indian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak for a second straight session on Tuesday, with the Nifty50 ending 80 points, or 0.34%, lower at 23,865 amid a volatile monthly F&O expiry session.

The index opened on a positive note but failed to sustain above the 24,000 mark. Selling pressure emerged at higher levels through the day, while expiry-related volatility kept the market range-bound. A tug-of-war between buyers and sellers persisted for most of the session before the Nifty settled near the day’s low.

Despite weakness in the benchmark indices, broader markets remained resilient. Both the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap indices ended in positive territory. The Midcap index recovered from early losses to close above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the Smallcap index finished above the previous session’s high, indicating continued strength in the broader market.

Among sectors, Nifty Defence and Nifty Realty emerged as the top gainers. Nifty IT was the biggest laggard, falling nearly 2.73% after slipping below its previous swing low of 26,635.

Among individual stocks, Maruti Suzuki and Titan were the top gainers on the Nifty, while Eicher Motors and Tata Consumer Products ended among the biggest losers.

Going ahead, market participants are likely to remain cautious amid geopolitical developments in West Asia. While ceasefire negotiations continue in Qatar, fresh military strikes have raised doubts over a lasting truce, tempering investor sentiment despite softer crude oil prices.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the Nifty continues to trade within the broader 24,200-23,800 range. After retreating from the upper end of the band, the index could witness a rebound from current levels.

He sees immediate support at 23,800-23,750, while a sustained move above 24,100 could trigger further upside.

Hitesh Rathi of Angel One maintained a cautious view, recommending traders wait for a decisive breakout.

According to him, a fall below the 23,800-23,750 support zone could intensify selling pressure, exposing the index to 23,630-23,600 initially, followed by 23,400 and the recent swing lows. On the upside, he believes buyers will regain control only if the Nifty sustains above the 23,950-24,000 zone, and advised against chasing rallies until then.

Nilesh Jain of Centrum Finverse noted that the Nifty found strong support around its 50-day moving average (DMA) at 23,840 and rebounded sharply from those levels. He said the index continues to face resistance near its 100-DMA at 24,130, with a decisive close above that level likely to confirm a fresh breakout.

Jain added that the broader technical structure remains constructive, and the buy-on-dips strategy remains valid as long as the index holds above its 21-DMA at 23,690.



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