“I think it should come slightly lower than that valuation, in my opinion, and on a trailing basis it should be around 40x,” Tiwari said, discussing the exchange’s IPO after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) cleared it last week.
Tiwari expects earnings at both NSE and BSE to grow once current regulatory measures on options trading normalise. “When things normalise and start to grow back again, it will again be a growth story in my opinion,” he said, adding that the market share shift between the two exchanges has already played out and does not concern him going forward.
NSE filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) after years of delay. The exchange runs alongside BSE in what Tiwari calls a duopoly market for trading services in India. The market currently values NSE at about ₹5 lakh crore, a figure Tiwari says is close to fair.
“At least slightly around that. But if there’s more money left on the table, it will be better for the investors, I believe,” Tiwari said of the ₹5 lakh crore estimate.
NSE’s FY26 operating revenue came in near ₹16,600 crore, with profit after tax (PAT) around ₹10,300 crore, down about 15% from the prior year. Tiwari attributed part of the drop to tightening around derivatives trading and to BSE gaining share in the options segment. He declined to give specific earnings estimates for NSE looking two to three years out, citing limits on what he can say about the company ahead of listing.
Tiwari acknowledged that SEBI’s measures targeting retail options volumes have weighed on trading activity. He linked this to a rise in retail futures and options (F&O) volumes that regulators sought to rein in, since most retail traders lose money on these trades. He expects volumes to recover within a few months as recent SEBI clarifications take effect, and does not see a structural decline in exchange volumes.
Tiwari also commented on BSE, saying the stock looks attractive for a one-year horizon after its recent price correction. He said Equirus tracks the NSE and the BSE but has not evaluated the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
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