Brazil’s World Cup campaign ended in heartbreak in New Jersey after a missed penalty proved decisive in a 2-1 defeat to Norway in the Round of 16. Yet, the biggest talking point emerged long before the final whistle. Why wasn’t Vinicius Jr, one of the world’s best attackers, trusted with the spot-kick?
After the match, Brazil head coach Carlo Ancelotti revealed that the penalty order was based on data rather than reputation. The explanation justified why Vinicius was overlooked. But it also raised another question: if statistics mattered so much, was Bruno Guimaraes really Brazil’s best option, especially with Raphinha unavailable through injury?
Brazil had the perfect opportunity to seize control when Matheus Cunha was brought down by Kristoffer Ajer early in the first half. As the referee pointed to the spot after a VAR review, many expected Vinicius to take responsibility. The Real Madrid star, who had already scored five goals and registered three assists in the tournament, even stood over the ball before handing it to Guimaraes.
The Newcastle midfielder opted for his trademark stuttering run-up before aiming low to his right. Norway goalkeeper Orjan Nyland guessed correctly, made the save, and the moment ultimately proved decisive as Brazil crashed out of the World Cup.
Naturally, Ancelotti was asked after the match why Vinicius had not been the designated penalty taker. His response suggested the winger was never high on Brazil’s list.
“We did some stats and the best was Raphinha. From the players available, the best was Neymar, then Igor Thiago, then Bruno Guimarães, then Martinelli. Bruno, in our view, was the best on the pitch.”
Ancelotti wasn’t entirely wrong
Despite his reputation as one of football’s elite forwards, Vinicius has never been an outstanding penalty taker.
The Real Madrid winger has converted only 13 of his 19 career penalties, a success rate of just 68 per cent. By comparison, penalty conversion rates at the elite level generally hover between 75 and 80 per cent.
His record for Brazil is even less convincing. Before the Norway match, Vinicius had converted only one of his three penalties for the national team, with his most recent miss coming against Venezuela in 2024.
Guimaraes, meanwhile, entered the match with a perfect record, converting all three penalties he had taken in senior football—two for Newcastle United and one for Lyon.
Based purely on numbers, Ancelotti’s decision was understandable.
But there was one major flaw
Despite his record for Newcastle, Guimaraes had never taken one for Brazil.
There was another concern, too, his predictability.
Modern penalty-taking has evolved dramatically. The traditional advice was simple: pick a corner and never change your mind. Today’s elite takers often slow their run-up, wait for the goalkeeper to move, then place the ball into the opposite corner.
It is an approach that has become increasingly common, but goalkeepers have adapted as well. Rather than committing early, many now delay their movement or disguise their intentions, forcing the taker into a split-second decision.
Guimaraes’ routine had become easy to study.
Across his previous five penalties for Newcastle, he used the same stuttering run-up every time and aimed to his right on four occasions, choosing the middle only once. Nyland appeared well prepared for that tendency. He held his nerve, waited for Guimaraes to commit and dived comfortably to his left to keep the effort out.
In hindsight, Brazil missed the one player Ancelotti himself identified as their best penalty taker.
Raphinha has converted 18 of his 19 penalties in senior football, including all three he has taken for Brazil. But the Barcelona forward was unavailable after suffering a hamstring injury earlier in the tournament.
Brazil were awarded another penalty deep into stoppage time, by which stage Neymar had entered the match and converted from the spot. But by then, the damage had already been done. It proved to be nothing more than a consolation as the five-time world champions suffered one of the most painful exits in their World Cup history.
