Under the revised structure, Petrol export levy has been reduced to ₹0.5 per litre from ₹1.50 per litre, Diesel levy has been cut to ₹20 per litre from ₹25 litre, while the ATF levy has been trimmed to ₹15 per litre from ₹19 per litre earlier.
Diesel’s revision is the most significant as it has an outsized share in India’s refined products export basket. Here’s a look at the stocks that will be impacted as a result of this move:
Reliance Industries
The stock stands to benefit the most from this policy shift. With its large refining capacity and significant export exposure, the reduced export levy improves the economics of every barrel it ships overseas. The ₹5 per litre diesel levy cut, in particular, is expected to be the single biggest tailwind for the company’s export margins.
Indian Oil Corporation
India’s largest state-run refiner is also well placed to gain, thanks to its extensive refining footprint and sizeable exports of petrol, diesel, and ATF. Lower levies across all three products translate into improved realisations on its export volumes.
BPCL
The second-largest among the three state-run oil refiners is expected to see a positive, though comparatively smaller, impact. Its ATF business is meaningful enough that the cut in aviation fuel levy should support margins.
HPCL
HPCL, on the other hand, is likely to see a relatively muted impact compared to its OMC peers, given its export mix differs from that of Reliance and IOC.
MRPL
MRPL could be a notable beneficiary as well. Given its strong refinery and export orientation, the reduced levies on both diesel and ATF are likely to improve its net export realisations meaningfully.
Shares of MRPL are up 8% so far this year, while those of Reliance Industries are down 21%. Shares of the state-run refiners, HPCL, BPCL and IOC, are down 30%, 20% and 18% respectively for the year so far.
